SAT FEB 22 : Reality Check : Who can win Mill Hill?
SAT 22 FEB
Who Can Win Mill Hill?
David
Each week I will consider a question.
This week a new political party was started. The Independent Group has 11 MPs taken from Conservative and Labour. Can they win in Mill Hill? In either the next General or Local Elections.
1. Split opposition
The problem for the IG is that it is going to take votes mainly from Labour with its rump being from that party.
This means that the Conservative position will be strengthened. In Barnet the council is a two party race. Both the Lib Dems and the IG will further dilute the process
2. Labour's Corbyn Problem
The anti semitism row has seriously undermined Labour. Yet they still came second in the local elections. The only way for Labour to win is in this Borough with a large Jewish population is to change leader.
3. The Lib Dem problem
For Labour the Lib Dems do dilute their vote and chances of un- seating the Conservatives. In Mill Hill they polled about a third of the Conservative vote which though not enough added to Labour to actually gain a seat, if the Conservatives list popularity then it is still unlikely that Labour could win. The Lib Dems on current polls and recent history may take 3 or 4 elections to build any sort of challenge.
4. Brexit Effect
Some commentators suggest the Conservatives may suffer because of Brexit. Yet it is only a month away and no serious defections or splits have taken place. A new leader for the next election will also freshen up the Party. Brexit is neutral for the Conservatives.
So the answer is as things stand if there was a general election this year the Conservatives would comfortably win, not least on the excellent economic performance. The local elections are over 3 years away, but with the opposition parties split into 3, it seems probable that the Conservatives will increase their share of the vote.
Who Can Win Mill Hill?
David
Each week I will consider a question.
This week a new political party was started. The Independent Group has 11 MPs taken from Conservative and Labour. Can they win in Mill Hill? In either the next General or Local Elections.
1. Split opposition
The problem for the IG is that it is going to take votes mainly from Labour with its rump being from that party.
This means that the Conservative position will be strengthened. In Barnet the council is a two party race. Both the Lib Dems and the IG will further dilute the process
2. Labour's Corbyn Problem
The anti semitism row has seriously undermined Labour. Yet they still came second in the local elections. The only way for Labour to win is in this Borough with a large Jewish population is to change leader.
3. The Lib Dem problem
For Labour the Lib Dems do dilute their vote and chances of un- seating the Conservatives. In Mill Hill they polled about a third of the Conservative vote which though not enough added to Labour to actually gain a seat, if the Conservatives list popularity then it is still unlikely that Labour could win. The Lib Dems on current polls and recent history may take 3 or 4 elections to build any sort of challenge.
4. Brexit Effect
Some commentators suggest the Conservatives may suffer because of Brexit. Yet it is only a month away and no serious defections or splits have taken place. A new leader for the next election will also freshen up the Party. Brexit is neutral for the Conservatives.
So the answer is as things stand if there was a general election this year the Conservatives would comfortably win, not least on the excellent economic performance. The local elections are over 3 years away, but with the opposition parties split into 3, it seems probable that the Conservatives will increase their share of the vote.
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